JANUARY 6, 2000

Well, my target for the NASDAQ Ave., which is in my remarks of last month, is going to be almost on the mark, however, it is about 2 weeks too late to be called a correct prediction.
My target for the NASDAQ last month was to have it end near the 3400 mark but I guess I was a couple of weeks ahead of myself as the money managers plowed right through the 4000 mark and kept heading up. It now looks like my end of the year target is arriving a couple of weeks late and I still feel that a mark near 3450 - 3550 area will be tested before the NASDAQ takes a rest from its downtrend - but it could have a little spurt upwards before it resumes down again to come to rest near 3500.
Of course, while the NASDAQ has been dropping, the 'weak hands' (small investor) get kind of scared and sell their OTCBB and other Small Caps without taking into consideration that this kind of sell-off in a major average is a normal happening and, in fact, a good thing which must take place. There is no real way that one can pin-point exactly when the sell-off will start but if one is a chart technician, as I am, and watches the high-flyers on all major averages, he/she can get an idea that prices are too darn high and something just has to give. However, we all (including me) wait that extra day or two in the hope that what we are seeing when the market drops is a 'mirage' and isn't real. It takes a few days to realize that we are in a real swift correction that will run its course regardless of what anyone says (those analysts who get paid for pumping up some companies) until enough cash has been accumulated by the money managers. They soon will have enough money to start dressing up their portfolios which will make the Big Boss happy when he takes a peek at the dressed up P&L ledger.
This recent sell-off came at a bad time for most of us. We were caught in between the Tax Loss selling and the Profit taking with little time to act. I opted to wait until after the start of 2000 before I unloaded some of my laggards. Now, I can get in on some that have been hammered down by those 'weak hands' and also add to my positions in my more solid Small Caps. I would imagine that most of you are in the same boat.
Well, let's see how far down the NASDAQ will go as I assume that most of the readers of this site are mainly concentrated in that Exchange.
I am holding on to my stocks and compiling a list of more low price/low PE stocks that I will take a position in when I feel the sell-off has reached an end or close to it.
I still feel all of the averages will make new highs this year with the DJIA over 13000 and the NASDAQ near the 5000 mark.
Don't forget, I am just a little old human being who is not offering any advice - so don't act on anything that I write. Do your own research and thinking and you will sleep better and so will I.

Have a Great Day

DECEMBER 3, 1999

It's going to be tough to give any opinions of where the markets will be going this month as we are faced with the normal (or this year abnormal) profit taking, portfolio dressing and now the perplexing Y2K.
It is the Y2K problem lurking in the minds of those Fledgeling Money Managers and also just about everyone who has a stake in stocks.
Will there be any goofs in the system which will mess up an individual's account at his/her broker? Will trades be executed without any problems? Will the trades be fast and timely or will the Y2K problem just swallow the trades and put them in the wrong account? These are some of the questions that I am sure have crossed our minds and they may make us hesitate to trade as we approach the end of this year.
I, for one, am going to pay my State and Property taxes before Dec. 10th so that the computers in the County Treasurer's office can record my payment and send a receipt back to me prior to Jan. 1, 2000 and I won't be selling or buying any stock after the 25th of December.
Well, my call last month on the NASDAQ reaching 3400 was correct but the DJIA fell back instead of going forward as we finished November and slipped into December.
I feel we will have an unusual amount of profit taking and tax loss selling right up to the end of December 1999. The DJIA could set a new high mark in December near the 12000 mark but then the year end Tax selling and Portfolio Dressing will drop the DJIA to a close near 11500.
The NASDAQ which has been setting new high marks on almost a weekly basis will continue to be strong during Dec. on the backs of the High Techs and will set new highs. The NASDAQ may approach 3600 - 3700 before it too will be hit by the year end bugaboos and the NASDAQ may settle near the 3400 mark.
Now, I hope that I am wrong and I very well could be but I want to take the more conservative view and not get carried away in the euphoria of the day.
It is the MicroCap stocks that will get hammered down mercilessly as they are held by 'weak hands' that panic when any sell-off takes place. Those weak hands will pull some of their money out of the smaller stocks and try to get in on the bandwagon of the BIG High Techs. As usual, the small investor will chase those BIG High Techs up and suffer in the short term if he panics and sells on any slight drop in the averages. There are a lot of losses to be taken from those MicroCaps and I don't think the Russell2000 Ave. will be at a new high for the year.
So, strap on your seat belts and get ready for what could be a roller coaster ride to the top only to be followed by a drop and then, of course, up in the year 2000 as the election campaign heats up. Inflation will increase slightly in 2000 and the individual stocks will have to earn the support of investors by coming through with solid earnings and growth.
The year 2000 will be a year of Stock Selection - no longer will all of the companies be carried upward by hype or random investing.
Well, to all of my investor friends, let me take this time to wish you a Very Merry Christmas and Holiday Season and, of course, A Very Happy and Prosperous New Year. Hard to believe it is going to be 2000, a year of a good stock market but not as euphoric or spectacular as 1999.
Of course, all of the above is only my opinion and is not intended to take on even the slightest hint of advice.

NOVEMBER 1, 1999

I wrote these remarks Wednesday but thought I better get it in the Home Page before the averages zoom above the marks that I indicated below:

I guess "close" only counts in horseshoes but calling this markets averages from one month to the next is not an easy thing to do.
I think I was very close to targeting what the DJIA and other averages were goin to to when I wrote my remarks last month.>br> In my remarks of October 1, 1999, I stated that the DJIA could drop to the 9800 mark and I was very close as it did make an intraday move down to 9884.

Now we can sit back and relax a little as most of the damage has been done and the fund and institutional money managers will start rushing in and push all the averages to new highs by the middle of 2000.
The NASDAQ which has been hit harder than the DJIA (on a percentage basis) will recover faster than the DJIA as it has more Hi-Tech and Internet stocks in that average. I would not, however, take my eyes off of the market entirely as there are still going to be days when some of the stocks and certain industries will take a big hit. Of course, if you are not a short term trader, you have little to worry about at this stage as in the long term, most of your fundamentally sound companies will move higher. That old saying, "the cream always rises to the top" still holds true and those good little stocks will rise to the top. It may take awhile but they will make it.
The stocks that got hit the worst in this recent sell-off are the BB stocks. Some of them have been delisted due to non-compliance with the SEC rules regarding fully reporting status. Other BB stocks have been manipulated by MMs (market makers) and many paid Hypsters who get on some of the Chat Boards and Bash the stocks until those who are weak holders panic and sell their holdings. It would be wise not to pay attention to those BASHERS. You can tell who they are by the number of posts they make to the boards. They make posts one after the other and they are usually ONE SENTENCE posts condemning the stock or the management of the company. Enough on BB stocks for today.

If you are a long term investor, like I am, hold on to your stocks as I predict that the DJIA will soon move up to 11930-12100- and the NASDAQ will get close to 3450. Now, that is not going to happen overnight but I see those figures being attained in the next 3 months for the DJIA and possibly 3 to 6 months for the NASDAQ.
Now, don't expect the averages to go straight up, there will always be days of profit taking or panic due to some analyst making some statements or our good friend Dr. Greenspan making some of his "plain english" comments.

Well, that's it for now. That is my opinion and I am sure you have your own. What I am trying to do with my comments is stir up your thoughts about where the averages may go. You may see things a little differently than I do and that is GOOD. At least you are thinking about it.

GOOD LUCK AND GOD BLESS!!

OCTOBER 15, 1999

Look for a rough day today with the DJIA possibly dropping 300 points or more with those market "curbs" put to use to stop the "CRASH".

Here are my remarks for the balance of the month:

The markets got pretty close to the targets mentioned in my previous remarks so far and we are not finished with October. The markets could have had a little uptrend for a few days but I don't expect that to happen now as our friendly Dr. Greenspan made another speech last night which will have the effect of pouring gasoline on the already weak DJIA and cause it to burst into flame and drop precipitously. Now I feel we could see a drop in the DJIA to my previous target near 9800 (or even 9500) before the Nervous money handlers start to pick up the pieces of their "folly" and start buying through the end of this year into the 'much feared Y2K'.
Dr. Greenspan's remarks prior to last night had the desired affect on the markets and then throw in the missed targets of earnings by some of the "BIG" and popular companies and we had the sell-off during the past week or two. I thought that would be the end (or close to it)
for the market drop this month, however, with Greenspan's latest salvo, the DJIA will get hammered along with the NASDAQ and the rest of the averages.
As is always the case, the sell-offs will pass and the analysts will come out of their dugouts and make statements and prognostications that will ease the minds of the "money managers" and novices and it is my hunch that we will see the DJIA back over 11000 before the end of November and closing in on 11500 to 12000 by year end.
This, of course, is only my opinion and I do not have a crystal ball to gaze into but my thoughts are based on over 40 years of watching the 'psyche' of the money managers and the ordinary man/woman on the street. So don't make your investment decisions based on my "thoughts or hunches".
Don't despair, better days are on the horizon for those stocks that you own which have some reasonable fundamentals. Sorry I can't say the same thing for those OTC:BB stocks.

For now, just grit your teeth or go visit your Mother-in-law where you will get some peace and quiet compared to what is going to happen to the stock market.

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OCTOBER 1, 1999

Well the Good News is that we are now finished with the Ravaging of our stocks in September.
The Bad News is that we now have to contend with October which could be a repeat of the action we had in September. However, I feel that although October will be a little tough on us, the market will not drop as drastically as it did last month. The market could dip to the 9800 mark on the DJIA but then we could see the beginnings of a climb in the DJIA which could take us to a new high.

One bad result of the drop in September is that it will leave those holding some OTC:BB stocks with some bad losses. Now there are some exceptions and the following remarks do not apply to those exceptions, however, they do apply to the general overall thousands and thousands of companies which have their stocks on the OTC:BB
If those OTC:BB stocks ever recover to what once was their individual highs, it will take what seems like forever. Of course, those in the OTC:BB stocks must know that they are playing with "fire" and could get seriously BURNED. I delve into the OTC:BB arena from time to time (and I shouldn't) but I monitor what I buy very closely and exit when I see problems developing.
Some investors (or Speculators) in the OTC:BB market will buy a stock at $1.00 per share and then watch it move a little higher to $1.12 per share or even $1.50 per share and instead of taking a profit, they continue to hope it will go to the favorite saying on some of the Chat Boards (GO TO THE MOON) but it doesn't. Instead it starts to fall down and the buyer just sits and watches the stock price fall below his/her purchase price of $1.00 to $0.90, $0.85, $0.75. The holder of the stock says to himself/herself "I can't sell at a loss - I will hold this and it will come back and make a new high." Well, the stock continues to fall and all along the holder continues to HOPE that it will recover. It continues to fall and now sits near $0.45 per share. The holder just knows (in his heart) that there will be good news (which in most OTC:BB stocks is just plain HYPE) coming out soon which will propel the price - TO THE MOON!! But alas, the price falls to $0.37 and now the holder is very bitter at the company and decides to SELL at a terrific loss. There should be a moral to this story but there isn't. All that can be said is: BULLS MAKE MONEY, BEARS MAKE MONEY, but HOGS GET STUCK!!. So stay out of the OTC:BB market unless you can afford to lose every dime you put into it. OTC:BB stocks are EXTREMELY RISKY!!! Some of them make it out of the BB arena and into the Small Cap NASDAQ or AMEX but not too many of them take that route. Now with the advent of compulsory filing to become a "fully reporting" company, it may become a little safer to speculate in the BB arena. However, a buyer must still be very careful.
There are some quite intelligent posters on some of the Chat Boards who seem sincere in their comments, however, on the other hand, there is a lot of plain garbage on those Chat Boards by those who want the price of your stock to either FALL or RISE to suit their interests. Remember, all those on the Chat Boards are there for their own benefit. We all, including myself, want to make money in the stock market and there are some who will go to any end to gain that profit. Don't get suckered into their HYPE or BASHING. They don't know a darn thing more about your stock than you do. Some of the remarks they make have no basis in fact. They skirt around the edges of being ourright "falsehoods" (sounds better than lies). Don't fall for that "GOING TO THE MOON" - "BUY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE" - "THIS STOCK WILL NEVER SEE $3.00 AGAIN" (or $1.00, $2.00, etc) - "BUY NOW BEFORE YOU MISS OUT". There are many more of those. Of course, there is the other side of the coin with the BASHING twist: "SELL NOW OR YOU WILL LOSE IT ALL" - "GOING DOWN, DOWN, DOWN", etc.

I am holding on to most of the stocks I own through this down cycle (which is a yearly event in Sept. & Oct.) and waiting for November when, hopefully, the sell-off will be complete and the small caps will begin to rear their little heads above the crowd. I am looking for a much better November and a return to over 11000 on the DJIA. With a little luck and some good news, the DJIA could be very close to 12000 before Dick Clark lowers the globe in New York to usher in 2000.

SEPTEMBER 24, 1999

I fell prey to the good economic news back on Sept. 16th and altered my view on the market trend. I should never have done that. It appears now since we had a big sell-off yesterday (9/23/99) that my view on the DJIA trend and the overall market was more on target in my views stated below on Sept. 1, 1999.
The targets mentioned in my remarks Sept. 1, 1999 were drawn from the results of my P & F charts at that time. I should never argue with my charts. They are not always correct but correct often enough to be heeded. Read the remarks below on Sept. 1, 1999.

I would expect some hesitation in the selling if and when the DJIA falls near the 10000 mark. That will be one of the "support" areas. If the DJIA holds at that mark, we could see a retracement a a couple of hundred points, however if the sellers continue pouring in with heavy volume, the 9800 could easily be met. That should be a major support area and hopefully it will hold at that area. Once there, we could see a sideways trading area of a couple of hundred point (9800 - 10200) until the Money Managers decide to plow upward and onward again.
Having said that, the sell-off will be overdone and the Money Managers et al will be scrambling again in November to be the first in line to grab what they feel will be bargains and push the market up again. I am going to start looking for some of those bargains near the end of October.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL AND GOD BLESS!

NONE OF THE ABOVE COMMENTS ARE TO BE CONSTRUED AS "ADVICE" ON BUYING, SELLING OR HOLDING ANY FINANCIAL VEHICLES YOU MAY HAVE IN YOUR INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO. I GIVE NO ADVICE, MY COMMENTS ARE MY OPINIONS ONLY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS ADVICE AND ACTED UPON.